21 January 2010

Hindsight is 20/20


My grandmother used to say this, then my mother said it, and now I guess I am too.

Hindsight is 20/20.

We haven't watched television in 6 months.

That's right. None.

In that time, we may have missed a lot of "goings on" in the States and here in Europe for that matter, but I conclude I may be better off because of it. Now, don't get me wrong . . . I keep up with current events, but hopefully any opinions I form have not been too unfairly biased.

Oh, you think yours aren't? Well, it's been scientifically proven that they can be so I won't belabor that. But I do find it interesting just the same.

I don't know where the phrase "hindsight is 20/20" originated, but as I'm sure you know, it refers to perfect vision and means "the inclination to see events that occurred as more predictable than they in fact were before they took place".

How many times have you said or heard somebody else say . . . "I knew that was going to happen."? or "I could have predicted that."?

This is particularly true in games (hence the phrase "Monday morning quarterback"), but it is also true in politics, medicine, and a whole host of other contexts.

Your bias can even go so far as to remember your prediction as having been stronger than it actually was, when it turns out to be correct". It's true!

So, next time you form an opinion . . . think about what really influenced it. It may surprise you if you're willing to admit it!

And BTW, everybody's hindsight is 20/20.

Want to know more? Look up availability heuristic.



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